"Given the increasing lack of continuity in college basketball, projecting the first-year impact of newcomers is more difficult than ever. Freshmen have always been volatile, but that's especially true now that they are four to five years younger than many of the upperclassmen they are up against. And though transfers are perceived to be more of a sure thing, there is no guarantee their production will carry over from one program to the next."
"He ended up averaging 16.8 points and was an NBA lottery pick in 2021. In 2022, much of the early buzz surrounding Duke's Kyle Filipowski was that the then-freshman might need time to fully acclimate to the college game. He averaged 15.1 points and 9.0 rebounds in that first season. We will undoubtedly miss on certain players this year, too, but following the early drumbeat has proved to be more right than wrong overall."
Projecting first-year impact of college basketball newcomers has become increasingly difficult because of a growing lack of continuity and age gaps between freshmen and upperclassmen. Freshmen remain volatile, while transfers often face uncertainty when carrying production to new programs. The ranking focuses on expected impact during the 2025-26 season. Methodology included input from college coaches and NBA scouts, examination of box scores from exhibition games and secret scrimmages, and projections of rotations and roles for hundreds of newcomers. Past examples of unexpected impact include Moses Moody and Kyle Filipowski. The list predicts the top 50 newcomers and identifies 16 additional players to watch.
Read at ESPN.com
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