The main value of forecasts is not in the predictions themselves, but in how they portray uncertainty and the stability of the race over time.
Daily polls attract attention, but are easy to overreact to. Electoral forecasts - interpreted appropriately - can help us all to keep our heads in an environment of information overload.
This year, the numbers coming out of our model are not going to grab headlines. Not much has changed in the past few months.
On the basis of forecast uncertainties, I've estimated that, as a rule of thumb, a 10% change in a candidate's probability of winning roughly corresponds to a 0.4 percentage point swing in the national vote.
Collection
[
|
...
]