"For months, the U.S. president tried to play peacemaker, but Viktor Orban's friend in Moscow ignored him - escalating missile strikes on Ukrainian cities and expanding hybrid warfare across Europe. Putin's resolve to only makes Trump look weak, and Trump does not tolerate looking weak. Now he appears to be bringing a stick to the negotiations. If Ukraine is indeed receiving Tomahawk missiles, things will only get worse for Putin. And for his friend in Budapest."
"Orban appears to be sleepwalking into a crisis of his own making. His love affair with Putin has isolated him in Europe. His reliance on Russian oil threatens to result in an economic catastrophe if and when the oil stops flowing through Ukraine. His revanchist claims on Ukraine's Zakarpattia Province has angered Kyiv, without winning Ukraine's Hungarians to his side."
"The ceremony culminated in a bold seven-minute by a young Viktor Orban, who called for free elections and the withdrawal of Soviet troops still stationed in Hungary. It was that same Orban who during Russia's invasion of Georgia in 2008, it as an "imperialistic action of pure power politics." But by 2022, he was captured by money."
Viktor Orban's closeness to Russia has isolated Hungary within Europe and exposed it to strategic and economic risks. Russia is suffering sustained losses in Ukraine even as external actors shift positions and supply Ukraine with intelligence and long-range weapons. Any transfer of Tomahawk missiles would intensify pressure on Putin and complicate Orban's position. Hungary's dependence on Russian oil threatens severe economic fallout if flows through Ukraine cease. Orban's territorial assertions over Zakarpattia have angered Kyiv without winning support from local Hungarians. Repeated Hungarian drone incursions risk provoking Ukrainian retaliation. Orban's earlier anti-Soviet stance stands at odds with his current embrace of the Kremlin.
Read at The Cipher Brief
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