Gerges expressed doubts about how neutral the US would be in the process, pointing to Washington's track record of supporting Israel. If the US proclaims a Hezbollah violation, Israel has assurances from the US that it can respond. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu echoed this in a statement, saying: "If Hezbollah violates the agreement and tries to arm itself, we will attack." However, Gerges said he thinks it is highly unlikely the reverse - the US declaring an Israeli violation - would happen.
During the coming weeks, the cease-fire deal requires a halt to hostilities, as well as Hezbollah fighters retreating from the Israeli border and Israeli military forces on the ground in Lebanon withdrawing. Despite these provisions, "the underlying challenges are enormous," said Fawaz A. Gerges, a professor of international relations at the London School of Economics, adding that the outcome largely depends "on the will of the combatants."
The inclusion of the US in the cease-fire monitoring process "complicates" matters. US troops will not be deployed in the area, but the US and France will join a pre-existing mechanism between United Nations peacekeeping forces and the Lebanese and Israeli armies, known as the tripartite mechanism. The US will chair the group.
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