As of Wednesday afternoon in New York, 'Democratic' shares for Polymarket's 'House control after 2024 election?' contract were trading at 1 cent, indicating traders see only a 1% chance of the party taking back the chamber. Each share pays out $1 if the prediction comes true, and zilch if not. The GOP's odds of winning the House, accordingly, were at 99%.
If the current odds are correct, then the Republicans, led by president-elect Donald Trump, will have hit the trifecta, controlling the White House and both houses of Congress. That, in turn, would ease the path for comprehensive crypto legislation in the next Congress, something the industry has been pushing for, complaining that existing laws do not clearly address how digital assets should be regulated.
While news organizations predicted that Democrats would hold the House in the early hours of the election on Nov. 5, by Wednesday afternoon they began following Polymarket in saying those chances were 'fading.' Just 24 hours earlier, the market was giving the Democrats a slightly better than even chance of prevailing in the lower house of Congress.
Collection
[
|
...
]