Kevin Cunningham: We excluded Jim Gavin from from our poll results - here's what happened

"Fianna Fáil voters' ballots may decide outcome following their candidate's exit"

"Since the start of the campaign it was assumed transfers would decide this election - but with Jim Gavin gone, the two remaining candidates are in a straight shootout."

"The Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks poll at the weekend explored how Gavin's transfers would evolve over the course of a campaign, deducing that the tie would be as close as 53-47 favouring Catherine Connolly over Heather Humphreys."

Transfers were expected to decide the election from the start of the campaign. Jim Gavin's withdrawal has turned the race into a straight head-to-head between Catherine Connolly and Heather Humphreys. Fianna Fáil voters' ballots could therefore be decisive. A Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks poll modeled how Gavin's transfers might redistribute during a campaign. The poll found the final contest could be extremely close, projecting a narrow 53-47 split in favour of Catherine Connolly over Heather Humphreys. The outcome hinges on how Gavin supporters allocate their preferences.

Read at Independent