"Taking the lessons from these battles, Rove wrote that the outcome of the coming shutdown will depend on three factors. First, which side gets their way and therefore looks stronger, as Mr. Clinton did in 1996. Second, which party makes a better case to voters and energizes its coalition, as the GOP did in 2014 and Democrats in 2020. Third, whether other issues loom larger in the nearly 14 months between now and the midterm elections."
"But no matter what, the biggest shutdown loser will likely be public trust in Washington writ large, he concluded. Voters see shutdowns as the result of gross incompetence by our leaders. When the National Election Study began in 1958, 73% of Americans said they trusted the federal government always or most of the time. Today, 22% do, a figure that has been close to constant for decades."
A looming government shutdown pits Congressional Republicans and the Trump administration against Democrats insisting on Affordable Care Act subsidies in a continuing resolution. Historical shutdowns show outcomes hinge on three factors: which side gets its way and appears stronger (Bill Clinton gained in 1996), which party makes a more persuasive case and energizes its coalition (Republicans in 2014; Democrats in 2020), and whether other issues dominate the nearly 14 months before midterm elections. Regardless of political winners, prolonged shutdowns erode public trust in Washington. Public trust has fallen from 73% in 1958 to about 22% today, and fiscal dysfunction contributes to that decline.
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