"National polls are misleading in trying to generalize what's going to happen," Thomas Gift, director of the Centre of US Politics at University College London, tells DW. "It looks like, right now, for example, Kamala Harris is going to win the popular vote she's up by a couple of percentage points. But I think it's unclear if she will win the Electoral College."
As a rule, opinion polls will aim to randomly sample enough "likely voters," often abbreviated to LV, to produce a result within a 95% confidence level which means the same value will occur 95 times out of 100 and within a certain margin of error.
Polls might show Harris leads Trump by around 2%, but it's also true that Trump has never been closer in the national polls to a Democratic rival.
Even though most pollsters correctly predicted Joe Biden's 2020 election win, his eventual margin over Trump was far closer than pre-election polls suggested.
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