Théo noted that after analyzing U.S. polling during the summer, he believed they were skewed in favor of Harris, which led him to make significant bets against the polling reliability. He mentioned analyzing the 'shy Trump voter' and the 'neighbor effect' which played a crucial role in his bullish prediction on Trump's success.
The 'shy Trump voter effect' describes supporters who are hesitant to express their preferences in polls. Understanding this dynamic influenced Théo's decision to stake his bets based on perceived public sentiment.
To mitigate his wager against polling biases, Théo employed the 'neighbor effect,' which concentrates on how voters' political preferences are influenced by those in their immediate community rather than through direct polling.
Bloomberg's estimates suggest that Théo's strategic insights into the election landscape will net him profits of around $48 million, indicating his substantial success compared to conventional polling predictions.
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