"Europe faces a higher-than-usual chance of a cold blast of weather before the end of the year, but the winter overall is likely to be warmer than average, the continent's long-range weather forecaster said Thursday. Temperatures this winter will be crucial for homeowners worried about the record cost of heating their homes, and for European policymakers seeking to avoid energy rationing due to cuts in Russian gas supplies."
""We see the winter as being warmer than usual," said Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service that produces seasonal forecasts for the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). "Nevertheless there is a still a significant chance of a block situation, which can lead to cold temperatures and low wind over Europe," he told AFP as the service issued a monthly update to its forecasts."
Europe is likely to have a warmer-than-average winter overall. A pronounced probability exists of a blocking pattern that can produce stable, wind-free weather accompanied by freezing temperatures and a potential cold outbreak in December. Heating demand and costs are expected to be crucial for homeowners, while policymakers may face risks of energy rationing tied to cuts in Russian gas supplies. Seasonal forecasts combine ocean and atmospheric temperature data, along with stratospheric wind speeds, and provide guidance though they lack short-range accuracy. La Niña tends to favour westerly winds in the latter part of winter, promoting warmer, wetter conditions.
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