Polymarket bettors believe there is an 86% chance that those involved in the January 6 protest will receive a pardon, reflecting a strong sentiment among the gambling community. Furthermore, there is a 78% chance assigned to Ross Ulbricht, creator of Silk Road, being pardoned, highlighting significant public interest in his case as well.
While Donald Trump has not explicitly stated why he supports the pardon for Ulbricht, there is a general consensus that his double-life sentence for non-violent crimes is seen as excessively harsh. This perception stems largely from his role in creating Silk Road, which some argue was pivotal in showcasing Bitcoin’s capabilities as a decentralized and censorship-resistant technology.
The Polymarket contract for the potential pardon of Ulbricht differs from the situation concerning January 6 protestors, as Trump has openly expressed intent to pardon them. This inconsistency raises concerns about possible disputes regarding the validity and terms of the contracts if Trump were to proceed with pardons, emphasizing the importance of precise language in such agreements.
In addition to Ulbricht and the January 6 protestors, there is a 14% likelihood that Trump may opt to pardon himself, alongside a mere 6% chance for Sam Bankman-Fried. These varying probabilities reflect bettors' speculative views on the political landscape and Trump's potential decisions regarding pardons in the near future.
Collection
[
|
...
]