From Trump's first campaign in 2015 through the next nine years, his speeches have increasingly included words and phrases related to crime and military conflict. In March 2024, Trump said that "it's going to be a bloodbath for the country" if he's not reelected in November.
By 2024, Trump's use of violent language had surpassed that of nearly all other democratic politicians we considered, approximating that of authoritarian figures such as Kim Jong Un and Fidel Castro.
This surge in violent rhetoric is not linked to significant external events such as wars. Trump has focused his messaging on violent crime, particularly in American cities, even as crime rates were declining.
The share of words associated with violence rose from almost 0.6% in 2016 to 1.6% in 2024 in Trump's speeches. As a comparison, the proportion of violent words in 40 randomly chosen weekly radio addresses by Barack Obama was 0.79%.
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