"After you make us lose $900,000 we will invest no less than that to finish you. You have 90 minutes left to update the lie. If you do this, you will solve the most serious problem you have caused yourself in life. If you decide not to correct it, and leave the lie intact, you will discover enemies who will be willing to pay anything to make your life miserable."
"Online prediction markets, once the haunt of a very-online fringe, are rapidly becoming a feature of modern warfare. Several timely bets laid this year suggest insiders may be using them to profit from secret information, such as Donald Trump's plans to kidnap the Venezuelan leader, Nicolas Maduro, or the timing of US-Israel attacks on Iran."
"Fabian's experience indicates that as well as potentially incentivising insiders to profit from foreknowledge, online prediction markets may push non-insiders to try to forcibly rewrite the record."
An Israeli journalist received threatening messages from Polymarket users after reporting a minor missile strike near Jerusalem that affected an unresolved bet on the Israel-Iran conflict. The threats demanded he retract his reporting or face serious consequences. Online prediction markets have evolved from niche platforms into features of modern warfare, with evidence suggesting insiders use them to profit from secret information about military operations. Polymarket, backed by prominent investors including Donald Trump Jr's venture capital firm and the Intercontinental Exchange, faces regulatory scrutiny for facilitating war profiteering and insider trading. Beyond incentivizing insiders, these markets may pressure non-insiders to forcibly alter public records to influence betting outcomes.
Read at www.theguardian.com
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