Holiday shoppers expect less discounts in 2025: Here's what the numbers say

"As economic uncertainty persists, 40% of consumers are expecting less discounts from brands during the 2025 holiday shopping season, an eight-point increase from the year prior, according to recently released data from Gartner. The insight, which arrives as forecasts predict U.S. holiday sales to grow at their slowest rate since the pandemic, could help inform marketing strategies as consumers continue to seek out value."

""Consumers are expecting to pay more. They're expecting to see fewer discounts. And so as a marketer... it's really about how consumers are feeling. How can you showcase value at every touch point and in every message?," said Brad Jashinsky, a director analyst at Gartner."

"The holiday report is informed by three sources, including the Gartner Consumer Community, which is designed to reflect the general population. It includes responses from 367 consumers collected between Aug. 4-11. The second source is an analysis of Pathmatics data, a third-party source which collects digital advertising data. The data used includes 186 retail brands collected between October 2023 and December 2024. In addition, the question, "How is your organization adapting seasonal marketing campaigns to shifting macroeconomic factors in 2025?," was posted on the Gartner Peer Community, a platform for enterprise leaders, in April."

Consumers expect fewer discounts and higher prices for the 2025 holiday season, with 40% anticipating fewer deals, an eight-point increase from the prior year. Forecasts predict U.S. holiday sales growth at the slowest rate since the pandemic, heightening price sensitivity. Shoppers are shifting from brand-specific websites to multibrand retail channels, with preference for brand sites falling from 61% in 2023 to 40% in 2025; retail sites are seen as more reliable and deal-friendly. Data sources include a 367-person consumer panel (Aug. 4–11), Pathmatics ad data covering 186 retail brands (Oct 2023–Dec 2024), and a peer-community question posted in April. Marketers should emphasize value across touchpoints and messaging.

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