Why Carrick may not be shoo-in for Man Utd job

"Manchester United have won the most points in the Premier League since caretaker boss Michael Carrick took over in January, so it seems a no-brainer to give him the job on a permanent basis. But dig a little deeper and the decision is not so obvious as the stats warn that, as brilliant as results have been, they're unlikely to continue in the long run."

"On the surface everything looks hunky-dory under Carrick. As well as his side taking the most points during his tenure, only Arsenal have a better goal difference, with no team scoring more goals. United's attack has been running blisteringly hot under their former midfielder, which is obviously fantastic in the short term, but slightly worrying for the future when it inevitably cools down."

"Eight teams have been better at creating chances based on expected goals, but having the best shot conversion rate in the league means United have scored seven more goals than a team historically would from the chances they've had - more than any other side. Looking at attack and defence overall, the only side to have overperformed their xG numbers by more than United since Carrick took charge are Nottingham Forest, who are enjoying their own 'new manager bounce' under Vitor Pereira."

"Of the six players who've been the most clinical in the Premier League since Carrick took over in mid-January, three of them play for his team. Only Forest's Morgan Gibbs-White has been more ruthless with his finishing than Matheus Cunha, while Benjamin Sesko and Casemiro have also been enjoying a hot spell in front of goal recently. While Carrick deserves credit for getting his players firing, will the six players below remain the best finishers in the Premier League forever? It's unlikely."

Manchester United have accumulated the most points in the Premier League since Michael Carrick took over in January. Only Arsenal have a better goal difference, and no team has scored more goals. United’s attack has produced unusually high shot conversion, scoring seven more goals than expected from the chances created. Several teams create chances more effectively based on expected goals, yet United’s finishing has driven the goal output. Overall, United have overperformed their expected goals more than most teams, with Nottingham Forest the only other side doing so by a larger margin. Several highly clinical players during Carrick’s tenure include Matheus Cunha, Casemiro, and others, but such efficiency is expected to cool over time.

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