"One year from today -- on Dec. 1, 2026, at 11:59 p.m. ET, to be exact -- the league's current labor agreement expires. As the owners and players look to agree on a new collective bargaining agreement, there are major hurdles to clear and some key areas of disagreement. Will we see a work stoppage in 2027? Is a salary cap coming? ESPN MLB experts Jeff Passan, Jesse Rogers and Alden Gonzalez field some of the biggest questions looming over the sport."
"The greater likelihood, if past is indeed prologue, points toward the league locking out the players Dec. 1, 2026. A lockout would shut down free agency and trades, as it did in 2021, and set an even more important, though informal, deadline: early to mid-March 2027, the drop-dead date for potentially losing regular-season games. What happens between today and a year from today could have significant bearing on avoiding the doomsday scenario:"
"The greatest threat of an extended work stoppage -- baseball's last was in 1994-95 -- would come if owners insist on an overhaul of the game's economic system to include a salary cap. Player leadership has indicated it won't even entertain the notion of a capped system. At the same time, the union and executive director Tony Clark are in the middle of a federal investigation into MLBPA finances that launched around May 2025."
The current MLB collective bargaining agreement expires Dec. 1, 2026 at 11:59 p.m. ET, creating a firm deadline for owners and players. A lockout that would halt free agency and trades is the more likely immediate outcome if talks fail, with early to mid-March 2027 as the informal drop-dead date to avoid losing regular-season games. Owners' push for a salary cap clashes with player leadership's refusal to consider a capped system. A federal investigation into MLBPA finances, begun around May 2025, could affect union leadership and bargaining positions, raising the risk of an extended work stoppage.
Read at ESPN.com
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