"First, accepting the QO is pretty rare. Going back to when draft pick penalties were instituted, my rough count was nine QOs accepted out of about 70 QOs offered. That's a 13 percent rate or so (I may have miscounted or misremembered my earlier count), which would suggest one or two acceptances if everything worked out just at its usual rate. And, there are some guys in this QO class like Zac Gallen and Michael King that could probably do with a one-year pillow deal."
"Buuuuut, the lockout looming in 2027 might change the calculus. There was some unnamed executive that was quoted as saying that broad expectation was that everyone would reject the QO, because taking a guaranteed one-year deal that could rebuild value while heading into a potentially-cancelled or curtailed season is not much of a benefit, when you think about it. I won't elaborate too much because I don't know if this point needs to be beaten to death, so hopefully you get the idea."
Thirteen players received qualifying offers, and acceptance of such offers is uncommon. Historically about nine acceptances occurred out of roughly seventy offers, a rate near 13 percent, suggesting one or two acceptances in a similar class. Players like Zac Gallen and Michael King could benefit from a one-year "pillow" contract. A potential 2027 lockout may discourage acceptance because a guaranteed one-year deal could lose value if a season is canceled or shortened. Rejecting the QO does not prevent re-signing with the former team or taking similar short-term deals, but it reduces marketability because other teams face additional signing costs.
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