"Díaz dominated out of the New York Mets' bullpen last season. The fireballer recorded a 1.63 ERA and 98 strikeouts in 66 1/3 innings while converting 28 saves. Things also looked good under the hood. Díaz averaged 97.2 mph on his fastball and induced whiffs with his slider 44% of the time. Overall, the righty ranked in the 99th percentile in expected ERA, expected batting average, K-rate, and whiff rate."
"These excellent numbers led Díaz, who will be 32 in March, to opt out of the remaining two years on his previous contract in search of a new one. He reportedly wants a five-year deal worth over $100 million, and that's where the problems begin for the Blue Jays. Good free agent contracts pay players for future performance, not what they have done in the past."
"His fastball was actually down a few ticks from just a few years ago in 2025, as he averaged 99.1 mph on it in 2022. What if it continues trending downwards? Paying $20 million annually for the 2025 version of Díaz feels appropriate given how lesser relievers have been paid this winter, but what if by year three he's sitting at 96 or 95 mph? Díaz, like most relievers, also hasn't been extremely consistent year-over-year."
Díaz posted a 1.63 ERA with 98 strikeouts in 66 1/3 innings and converted 28 saves while ranking in the 99th percentile across multiple expected metrics. He averaged 97.2 mph on his fastball and generated a 44% whiff rate on his slider. Díaz opted out of two remaining contract years and reportedly seeks a five-year deal worth over $100 million. Concerns include a decline from a 99.1 mph fastball in 2022 to lower velocity in 2025, year-to-year inconsistency (a 3.52 ERA in 2024), and the general volatility and long-term risk of reliever contracts.
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