Logan Webb's change-up was a top pitch in baseball in 2023, contributing to his Cy Young runner-up finish, but saw a drastic decline in 2024 as its Run Value fell into the negatives. This shift coincided with a troubling increase in opponents' hard-hit rates, suggesting Webb's ability to manage contact is waning, characterized by a rise in his ERA and xERA. Despite producing excellent groundball rates, the dramatic drop in change-up effectiveness is concerning for Webb's future performance.
In 2024, Logan Webb's once-dominant change-up dramatically declined, showcasing one of the largest year-to-year swings in performance, dropping into the negatives for Run Value.
Opponents' hard-hit rate against Webb has steadily increased, from 38.5% in 2021 to 51.6% in 2024, indicating a concerning trend as he loses effectiveness.
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