"On the surface, Valdez looks deserving of the large term and dollar amount he's likely to receive in free agency. The two-time All-Star ranks sixth among all starting pitchers in fWAR (20.6), fifth in innings pitched (973), tied for first in wins, and 10th in total strikeouts (951) since the start of the 2020 season as a member of the Houston Astros."
"However, Valdez has a few somewhat concerning trends in his profile that have taken shape over the past two seasons. His BB/9 has climbed each of the past two seasons, from 2.59 in 2023 to 2.81 in 2024 and 3.19 this past season. Valdez has consistently outperformed his expected ERA throughout his career, but has had issues avoiding hard contact at times."
"He finished the 2025 campaign in the 10th percentile in average exit velocity (90.8 mph) and in the ninth percentile in hard-hit rate (46.3%). The second half of the season was not particularly kind to Valdez, as he posted a 5.20 ERA, 3.85 xERA, 7.86 K/9, and 3.42 BB/9 in 12 starts. Valdez has always been an extreme ground-ball pitcher, which could, in theory, be a seamless fit with the Blue Jays' excellent defensive play in the infield, led by Andrés Giménez and Ernie Clement."
Framber Valdez is a veteran left-handed starter with two All-Star nods and top-tier cumulative numbers since 2020, including high fWAR, innings, wins, and strikeouts. The Toronto Blue Jays face rotation needs with other starters entering free agency and could consider adding a starter behind their core. Valdez’s walk rate has risen over the past two seasons, and he has shown susceptibility to hard contact despite outperforming expected ERA historically. A difficult second half in 2025 included elevated ERA and walk rate. Valdez’s extreme ground-ball profile could fit well with Toronto’s infield defense, but control trends and temperament introduce uncertainty.
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