"At the time, Sale's most recent innings total of 102 2/3 innings was his highest in three seasons, as he had barely pitched in 2021-2022, and missed 2020 entirely. His ailments included rib and pinkie injuries, along with Tommy John Surgery. The Braves made a gamble that Sale would be his dominant pitching self without the issues that would keep him off the field, and boy, did it pay off."
"Although the left-hander delivered an outstanding 2024 season, it ended on a sour note. Back spasms forced Sale to be scratched from Game 2 of the Wild Card Series doubleheader against the New York Mets, a substantial blow for the Braves even had they managed to advance. All that aside, though, 2024 reversed the conception of Sale as an immensely talented but always injured hurler. He posted 6.4 fWAR and a 57/53/66 line (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-) in 177 2/3 innings. That was his highest innings and fWAR total since 2017, the best FIP- of his career, and his best xFIP- since 2019."
"While one resurgent season does not necessarily revive a career, the Braves were still penciling in Sale as their ace for 2025. Even factoring in the risk of injury, he was expected to provide above-average production in total. ZiPS, for example, had his point estimate at 3.3 WAR in under 140 innings, essentially a 5 WAR-per-season rate but with some serious time missed baked in."
Chris Sale entered 2025 as the reigning National League Cy Young Award winner after a strong 2024 campaign. The Braves acquired Sale from the Red Sox during the 2023-24 offseason for infielder Vaughn Grissom to bolster a rotation already featuring Max Fried, Spencer Strider, and Charlie Morton. Sale had returned to higher workload in 2024 after limited innings from 2020–2022 due to rib and pinkie injuries and Tommy John surgery. The 2024 season produced 6.4 fWAR and excellent FIP-/xFIP- marks across 177 2/3 innings, but it ended with back spasms that forced him out of a Wild Card game. Projections still expected above-average production in 2025 despite injury risk.
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