"Basically, back in the day, MLB had a problem with some teams signing and stashing guys that could probably be productive major leaguers in their farm system. This was all before the Rule 4 (amateur) draft and stuff like "international amateur free agency" with bonus pools and the like, and basically the idea was that MLB wanted MLB-caliber players in MLB, not waiting in the wings."
"With that said, the implementation is pretty onerous: most guys aren't kept on a roster all year unless they're already certain to be meaningful contributors, and roster flexibility is even more important to the well-endowed Dodgers than it is to the conviction-less Marlins and Pirates. As a result, the modern iteration of the Rule 5 Draft is kinda weird: teams would certainly still love the chance to pluck a player they feel they can get more out of,"
The Rule 5 Draft was created to prevent teams from hoarding major-league-capable players in the minors and to give overlooked players a path to the majors. The core principle remains appealing, but the requirement to carry a selected player on the active roster for a full season creates significant roster-management burdens. Wealthy teams have different incentives and flexibility than small-market clubs, producing uneven outcomes. Viable targets tend to fit specific archetypes of fringe contributors who can help immediately or stick beyond the restricted year. Informal prediction lists historically convert to actual picks at roughly a 30 percent rate.
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