Barclays says humanoid robots can offset 60% of China's 37M worker shortfall by 2035

China’s working-age population is projected to contract by 37 million people over the next ten years under demographic forecasts and a 65% participation-rate assumption. Manufacturing accounts for about a quarter of the economy, so the labour decline is framed as an industrial risk arriving within a decade. Barclays estimates that deploying up to 24 million humanoid robots across China’s workforce by the mid-2030s could fill the projected gap at the level of effective output rather than nominal employment, equivalent to roughly 4% of the current labour force. China is also positioned as the global centre of the humanoid-robot supply chain, with major shipments in 2025 and government targets for integration into manufacturing supply chains.

"Barclays published a research note estimating that China's deployment of humanoid robots could offset as much as 60% of the country's projected labour-force decline by 2035. The arithmetic underneath the note is the part that gives the number its sharpness. China's working-age population is, on Barclays' demographic forecasts and a 65% participation-rate assumption, expected to contract by 37 million people over the next ten years."

"Manufacturing is roughly a quarter of China's economy, so a 37-million-worker decline is not, on the bank's framing, a slow-acting demographic question. It is an industrial-based risk that arrives within a single decade. Barclays' broader 'Robots Roll Out, Economies Rewire' research quantifies the trade as needing up to 24 million humanoid robots deployed across the Chinese workforce by the mid-2030s, equivalent to roughly 4% of the country's current labour force, to fill the projected gap at the level of effective output rather than at the level of nominal employment."

"What makes the Barclays note operationally interesting is the underlying production reality that the analysts are leaning on. China is now the centre of the global humanoid-robot supply chain , in every available unit-shipment measure. Unitree shipped roughly 5,500 humanoid units in 2025 (more than any other producer worldwide); Shanghai-based Agibot followed at 5,168 units; UBTech produced around 1,000."

"Beijing has set a 2027 MIIT target for integrating humanoids into manufacturing supply chains, and a 2035 target for a 300bn-yuan ($41bn) domestic h"

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