A YouGov poll post-verdict showed 27% less likely, 26% more likely, and 39% unaffected to vote for Trump. Along party lines, 50% Republicans more likely, 44% Democrats less likely.
80% of Trump supporters would continue supporting him even if convicted. Some may reconsider, but only 4% would no longer support. Polls suggest support shifts towards Biden post-hypothetical conviction.
Polls indicate shifts towards Biden in matchups post-hypothetical conviction. Results show Trump leading if acquitted and Biden leading if found guilty, with Biden gaining more when Trump serves prison time.
Pre-conviction, Trump was ahead of Biden in key swing states, attributing gains to support from young, Black, and Hispanic voters. Dependence on these voters beyond the MAGA base could be significant.
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