"Trump's odds have increased to 58.2%, while Harris's have decreased to 41.6%. This marks his first lead since August 3, according to Silver's model."
"Harris has been getting a lot of mediocre state polls lately. The chance of her winning the popular vote but losing the electoral college has risen to 18%."
"Most of Trump's shift in favor is attributed to his advantage in Pennsylvania, where it had been a while since Harris had led in a poll."
"Although there was a surge of enthusiasm for Harris post-Biden dropout, reliance on Biden's former campaign staff may hurt her chances moving forward."
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