A Mathematical Explanation of What is Going to Win Best Picture This Year | Festivals & Awards | Roger Ebert
Briefly

In 2009, the Academy adopted a preferential ballot for Best Picture voting and expanded the nominee field from five to ten. This change aimed to avoid winners emerging with only minimal support, as seen previously when films like "The Dark Knight" and "Wall-E" were overlooked. The preferential ballot requires voters to rank nominees, fostering a system that values broader appeal. While it can complicate predictions, it effectively ensures the Best Picture winner achieves significant majority backing, rather than merely attracting a small, passionate faction of support.
The adoption of the preferential ballot in 2009 transformed the Best Picture voting process, ensuring winners reflect broad support rather than mere plurality.
The preferential ballot measures overall popularity, preventing a film from winning that lacks support, which could happen with a simple plurality approach.
Read at Roger Ebert
[
|
]