Germany's recent election has yielded substantial results, with the CDU/CSU winning but falling short of a governing majority, leading to anticipated coalition negotiations. The far-right AfD gained traction, positioning itself second. Friedrich Merz, now expected to lead, faces challenges forming a coalition that excludes the AfD due to the Brandmauer principle. The probable coalition scenarios include working with the SPD or an unpopular three-way coalition with the Greens. The outcome also hinges on the FDP's return to parliament, further influencing coalition dynamics.
However, the alliance cannot govern alone: the exit polls indicate it received about 29% of the vote, not an overall majority.
Weeks or even months of horse-trading are now expected, after, as predicted, no party won a majority.
Friedrich Merz's insistence that a coalition with the AfD would be selling the soul of his party makes it highly unlikely.
If the FDP re-enters parliament, the potential for coalitions becomes more complex as their departure led to the collapse of Olaf Scholz's government.
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