This article investigates the predictive capabilities of ChatGPT, specifically in economic forecasting and event predictions such as the Academy Awards. The authors conducted tests to see if ChatGPT could access relevant online information after its training cutoff in September 2021. They found that it failed to predict upcoming events like NCAA outcomes, emphasizing limitations in the model's ability to combine past training data with real-time information, thus leading to a lack of accurate predictions in specific scenarios, reflecting the constraints imposed by its design and training methodology.
Our hunch is that if there is any relevant information that could facilitate prediction in the pre-September 2021 training data, then it does not constitute a good candidate for a falsification.
Whether using the direct prompt or the future narrative prompt, whether using ChatGPT-3.5 or ChatGPT-4, the result was failure to predict certain events.
Across all four types of queries, ChatGPT demonstrated limitations in accessing real-time information, revealing a gap in its predictive capabilities outside of its training data.
The study's findings underscore the challenges faced by AI models when predicting real-world events with no prior information in their training datasets.
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