Bettors on Polymarket underestimated the quick release of Telegram CEO Pavel Durov, costing them $270,000 after he was released on $5.6 million bail in August.
Sentiment among bettors suggested a longer detainment was likely, with August release odds in the mid-30%s and probabilities of release before October at 75%-90%. This miscalculation led to significant financial losses.
Durov's significant wealth and background allowed for speculation that he might be a flight risk, fueling expectations among bettors for extended detention by French authorities.
The perception that French authorities would be strict in detaining Durov proved incorrect, as one bettor, Champ, capitalized on the early release, winning over $56,000.
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