"They do so in hope, rather than certainty, that the US will come to Europe's aid if Russia attacks Nato territory. Who truly believes that Trump, who prefers one-day displays of US power, would commit US forces to an open-ended war in Europe with potential nuclear risks if Vladimir Putin suddenly grabbed a Russian-speaking border town in Estonia, or the Norwegian Arctic archipelago of Svalbard?"
"This will require a decade of substantially increased military spending, something that polls show public opinion broadly supports, so far. Yet several European states including the UK, France and Italy are in too fragile a fiscal position to finance a defence surge without massive joint borrowing, something that Germany is unwilling to countenance. Buying more weapons is only one part of building a credible, more independent European defence."
Europe now faces the prospect of defending itself with less or no US support, prompting leaders to reduce transatlantic overdependence. Many political figures still hope for US intervention despite uncertainty about long-term commitments. European governments must assume responsibility for their own defence, requiring a decade of substantially increased military spending that public opinion broadly supports. Several states lack the fiscal capacity to finance a major defence surge without joint borrowing that Germany opposes. Credible independent defence requires both high-profile capabilities and unglamorous essentials: ammunition, spare parts, logistics, training, larger forces and a new leadership structure for timely decisions.
Read at www.theguardian.com
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