As Belarus prepares for a presidential election, Alexander Lukashenko is expected to claim victory for a seventh term, despite losing legitimacy after the 2020 elections. Protests and international condemnation followed that election, which was marred by allegations of fraud. Lukashenko's primary campaign message plays on fears of instability without him. The election environment is highly controlled, with independent media suppressed and election commission memberships kept secret, raising questions about the election's fairness.
His main message is: 'Without me, things will get worse. Belarus might be dragged into a war,' said Valery Karbalevich, a Belarusian political scientist.
In 2020, according to polls, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya received 53% of the vote, while Lukashenko only won 28%. However, the authorities declared Lukashenko won 80.1%.
The violence sparked days of mass protests. Now, almost five years later, the regime wants to avoid such scenes. Independent media have been classified as extremist.
The membership of election commissions is a secret, and only representatives of parties and organizations loyal to the government are allowed to observe the voting process.
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