Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev are meeting in Abu Dhabi to finalize a peace agreement after a decades-long conflict. This first formal meeting follows a draft agreement and occurs without Russian involvement, which signifies a geopolitical shift in the South Caucasus. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan have distanced themselves from Moscow amid deteriorating relations. The exclusion of Russia is significant, as it once held strong influence in the region, exposed by recent developments where Azerbaijan regained control of Karabakh.
With Russia overwhelmed by its failed invasion of Ukraine, this is very much at the exclusion of Russia. Baku and Yerevan have both been distancing themselves from the Kremlin.
The meeting in Abu Dhabi also follows a similar bilateral meeting between the Armenian premier and the Turkish President, which was a degree of surprising progress on both diplomatic tracks in this difficult post-war landscape.
Moscow has been gradually losing its influence in the ex-Soviet space. The most striking change is the loss of Russia's decades-long stronghold in the South Caucasus region.
The results of this meeting will ultimately shape the future of the South Caucasus, as it occurs with Russia's absence from the Armenia-Azerbaijan equation.
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