World almost certain to endure record hot year by 2030, UN warns

A record-breaking hot year is expected to become almost certain by 2030 as the climate crisis intensifies. An El Niño event expected later this year could cause the global temperature record to be broken as soon as 2027. Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels continue to rise, trapping more heat and increasing extreme weather, including a record-breaking heatwave affecting the UK and Europe. Global heating is already estimated to cause one death every minute, and the toll is expected to increase unless emissions fall rapidly. There is an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest on record. There is a 75% chance that 2026–2030 average temperatures will be more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Warming above 1.5°C increases risks of severe heatwaves, droughts, storms, and floods, while every fraction of a degree avoided reduces damage.

"A record-breaking hot year is almost certain by 2030 as the climate crisis intensifies, the UN's World Meteorological Organization has warned. With an El Nino event expected later this year, the global temperature record could fall as soon as 2027. Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are continuing to rise, trapping more heat and driving more extreme weather, including the record-breaking heatwave that has hit the UK and Europe this week."

"The report, produced for the WMO by the UK Met Office, predicts an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest ever recorded. There is a 75% chance that the average temperature for the five-year period from 2026 to 2030 will be more than 1.5C above the pre-industrial average."

"Simon Stiell, the UN climate chief, said: The latest heatwave in Europe is a brutal reminder of the spiralling impacts of the climate crisis, both human and economic. Many other parts of the world are also getting hit hard, such as India and other parts of Asia. Protecting human lives, businesses and economies from extreme heat and the many other soaring costs of climate change is core business for every nation, and it starts with kicking the fossil fuel addiction much faster, he said, noting that clean power is now cheaper than fossil fuels and faster to produce."

"Scientists have repeatedly warned that warming of more than 1.5C risks unleashing more severe heatwaves, droughts, storms and floods, and makes it harder for communities to adapt. However, every fraction of a degree of warming avoided reduces damage. The Paris agreement goal of limiting global temperature rises to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels is assessed over a 20-year period, but is now unlikely to be met. The weaker 2C target remains within reach if urgent action is taken."

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