Solar to dominate energy by 2035, but AI data centers will keep fossil fuels in business | TechCrunch

"Solar will become the largest source of power in the next decade, surpassing coal, oil and natural gas, according to a new report from BloombergNEF. The tectonic shift will occur alongside a historic rise in the use of energy driven by AI and the electrification of entire industries."

"BloombergNEF expects the shift to happen on economic grounds alone - solar is simply too cheap to ignore. Pakistan, for example, has added 25 gigawatts of solar power in the last two years after natural gas prices spiked following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The transition could be even swifter if countries take more aggressive measures to curb their carbon emissions."

"The energy consultancy expects data centers to drive an additional 1 terawatt of utility-scale solar, 400 gigawatts of solar, 370 gigawatts of natural gas, and 110 gigawatts of coal. But because of gas and coal's ability to operate 24/7, BloombergNEF expects those fossil fuels to provide 51% of incremental generation for data centers by 2050."

"Other technologies have been vying for a piece of the data center market, including long-duration energy storage, geothermal, and nuclear. Big batteries received a boost from Google, which has included $1 billion worth of 100-hour batteries from Form Energy in a recent data center project. And both geothermal and nuclear power show promise following the blockbuster IPOs of both Fervo Energy and X-energy this month."

Solar is expected to surpass coal, oil, and natural gas as the largest power source within the next decade. The shift is attributed to economics, since solar is too cheap to ignore. Pakistan added 25 gigawatts of solar in two years after natural gas prices rose following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Faster transitions could occur with stronger carbon-emissions policies. Data centers are expected to add about 1 terawatt of utility-scale solar, alongside large amounts of other generation sources. Fossil fuels are still expected to supply 51% of incremental data-center generation by 2050 because they can run 24/7. Long-duration storage, geothermal, and nuclear are competing, with big batteries supported by Google’s $1 billion investment in 100-hour batteries.

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