"The new paper, published in Nature Sustainability, is the most detailed study yet of how far and how fast different regions will encounter temperature extremes as human-driven global heating rises from 1C above preindustrial levels 10 years ago, towards 1.5C this decade, to 2C, which many scientists predict could occur around mid-century unless governments make rapid cuts to emissions from oil, gas and coal."
"Using computer models, the authors then mapped where in the world will see the biggest changes and how many people will be affected. If the 2C threshold is breached, the new dataset indicates the number of people experiencing extreme heat will increase from 1.54 billion people (which was 23% of the world population in 2010) to 3.79 billion (41% of the projected world population in 2050). The majority of those affected will be in India, Nigeria, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan and the Philippines."
If global heating reaches 2C by mid-century, the number of people experiencing extreme heat will rise from 1.54 billion (23% in 2010) to 3.79 billion (41% projected in 2050). Extremes are measured as days deviating from an 18C temperate baseline; models map regional changes as warming moves from 1C to 1.5C to 2C. The tropics and southern hemisphere will face the largest increases in cooling demand, while northern countries will struggle to adapt because built environments suit cooler climates. Northern heating demand will fall and southern cooling demand will rise; air-conditioning energy use is projected to overtake heating by century end. Most affected countries include India, Nigeria, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan and the Philippines; avoiding 2C requires rapid emissions cuts.
Read at www.theguardian.com
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