"The world is rapidly approaching a crucial turning point in its energy consumption, with global demand for key fossil fuels, particularly oil and coal, expected to reach a peak around 2030, according to the International Energy Agency's (IEA) flagship publication, the World Energy Outlook 2025. This pivotal moment is outlined in the IEA's more transition-friendly "Stated Policies Scenario" (STEPS), which tracks energy trends based on government policies already adopted or put forward, even if not yet fully enacted into law."
"The so-called CPS, on hiatus for 5 years, projects that fossil-fuel consumption will rise by 13% by 2050. This hinges on a slower pace of electric vehicle adoption and assumes that countries will not keep their promises to curb fossil fuel consumption. Last year, the IEA projected oil demand would either plateau or decline in the 2020s across its scenarios."
Global demand for oil and coal is expected to peak around 2030 under the IEA's Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS). STEPS projects rapid growth in renewables, with solar and wind nearly tripling electricity generation capacity by 2035. Electric vehicle sales and heat pump adoption surge globally, led by China and other major economies. Efficiency gains from stricter standards and smarter technologies flatten overall energy demand despite population and economic growth. The IEA also reinstated a Current Policies Scenario (CPS) that projects a 13% increase in fossil-fuel consumption by 2050 if policy commitments falter and EV adoption slows.
Read at Fortune
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