Economic growth no longer linked to carbon emissions in most of the world, study finds

"The once-rigid link between economic growth and carbon emissions is breaking across the vast majority of the world, according to a study released ahead of Friday's 10th anniversary of the Paris climate agreement. The analysis, which underscores the effectiveness of strong government climate policies, shows this decoupling trend has accelerated since 2015 and is becoming particularly pronounced among major emitters in the global south. Countries representing 92% of the global economy have now decoupled consumption-based carbon emissions and GDP expansion, according to the report by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU)."

"Using the latest Global Carbon Budget data, it finds that decoupling is now the norm across advanced economies, with 46% of global GDP in countries that have expanded their economies while cutting emissions, including Brazil, Colombia and Egypt. The most pronounced decouplings occurred in the UK, Norway and Switzerland. More important is the spectacular shift in China. The world's biggest emitter is sharply reducing its economic dependence on coal and other fossil fuels."

"Between 2015 and 2023, China's consumption-based emissions rose 24%, less than half the growth of its economy (more than 50%). For the past 18 months, its emissions have plateaued and many analysts believe they may have peaked."

Decoupling between economic growth and carbon emissions has accelerated since 2015 and is now widespread, especially among major emitters in the global south. Consumption-based emissions and GDP expansion are decoupled across countries representing 92% of the global economy. Advanced economies account for 46% of global GDP in nations that have grown while cutting emissions, including Brazil, Colombia and Egypt, with the strongest cases in the UK, Norway and Switzerland. China is sharply reducing reliance on coal; its emissions grew far more slowly than its economy between 2015 and 2023 and have plateaued in the past 18 months. Twenty-one countries improved decoupling over the past decade, while 22 others have maintained decoupling for decades, including the US, Japan, Canada and most EU countries. Some political shifts produced brief upticks in emissions but did not reverse long-term decoupling trends.

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