"These show the tipping point that makes an Amoc shutdown inevitable is likely to be passed within a few decades, but that the collapse itself may not happen until 50 to 100 years later. The research found that if carbon emissions continued to rise, 70% of the model runs led to collapse, while an intermediate level of emissions resulted in collapse in 37% of the models. Even in the case of low future emissions, an Amoc shutdown happened in 25% of the models."
"Scientists have warned previously that Amoc collapse must be avoided at all costs. It would shift the tropical rainfall belt on which many millions of people rely to grow their food, plunge western Europe into extreme cold winters and summer droughts, and add 50cm to already rising sea levels. Amoc graphic The new results are quite shocking, because I used to say that the chance of Amoc collapsing as a result of global warming was less than 10%,"
Extended climate model runs to 2300 and 2500 indicate the tipping point for the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc) is likely to be passed within a few decades, though the full collapse may occur 50–100 years later. Continued rising carbon emissions produce collapse in 70% of model runs; intermediate emissions produce collapse in 37% of runs; even low-emission scenarios produce collapse in 25% of runs. An Amoc shutdown would shift the tropical rainfall belt, endanger food production for millions, plunge western Europe into extreme winters and summer droughts, and add about 50 cm to sea levels.
Read at www.theguardian.com
Unable to calculate read time
Collection
[
|
...
]