Brollies at the ready! UK rainfall at level not expected until 2048

"We know from observations and theory that with increasing temperature, the atmosphere can hold more water, meaning that rainfall will get heavier."

"Increasing winter rainfall increases soil moisture across the country, making it more likely for flooding to occur, even from smaller storms."

"It's been known for a while now that these types of models underestimate extreme rainfall because they do not properly simulate the important processes required for heavy rainfall."

"What's new and interesting in this paper is that we didn't know that they also underestimated the rate of increase in seasonal mean rainfall."

Newcastle University researchers re-examined weather data from 1950 to 2024 and found UK winter rainfall levels already match projections for 2048, placing the climate about 23 years ahead of prior expectations. Warmer temperatures allow the atmosphere to hold more water, producing heavier rainfall and increasing soil moisture nationwide. Higher soil moisture raises susceptibility to winter flooding, even from smaller storms. Current climate models such as CMIP6 combine many simulations but still struggle to separate human-driven changes from natural variability and tend to underestimate both extreme rainfall and the rate of increase in seasonal mean rainfall.

Read at Mail Online