"Aston Villa have confirmed their return to the Champions League. Friday's 4-2 Premier League thrashing of last season's champions Liverpool secured Unai Emery's side a place back among Europe's elite. Villa missed out on the top five on goal difference on the final day of last season, when a mistake by referee Thomas Bramall denied Morgan Rogers an opener at Manchester United and Villa lost 2-0 and had Emiliano Martinez sent off."
"It was a wound which needed healing - and they managed to do just that by leapfrogging Liverpool into fourth and moving out of sixth-placed Bournemouth's reach. The focus is now on Wednesday's Europa League final against Freiburg in Istanbul, but, while Villa have been in the Champions League spots since November, they remain the Premier League's overperformers. According to Opta's expected table, Emery's side should sit 12th."
"Eight places - and 15 points - better off than their expected position, they are the highest overperforming team in the Premier League. Sunderland and Everton are the only other sides overperforming by more than two places. Villa's 54 goals rank seventh in the league, below 10th-place Chelsea (55), while their 471 shots is just ninth highest - also lower than any of the top six and Chelsea."
"Only Tottenham (+8.33) have overperformed their expected goals (xG) more than Villa, while five clubs have defied their xG more at the back. Villa's xG is 46.42, meaning they have scored 7.58 goals more than would be expected, but it is by far the lowest of their closest rivals, with the rest of the top six all recording an xG above 58."
Aston Villa returned to the Champions League after a 4-2 Premier League win over Liverpool. The result secured fourth place and moved Villa ahead of Liverpool while keeping them out of reach of Bournemouth. The club now turns attention to the Europa League final against Freiburg in Istanbul. Villa have been in Champions League positions since November, yet their league performance exceeded expectations. Opta’s expected table places Villa in 12th, meaning they overperformed by eight places and 15 points, the highest in the Premier League. Their goal tally ranks seventh, shots rank ninth, and shots on target rank eighth. Their 11% conversion rate is relatively low, but their shot conversion and xG differences show they scored more than expected, with 7.58 more goals than xG.
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