SEND overhaul unlikely to curb rising costs before 2030, government concedes

"The cost of supporting children with special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) is set to continue rising for much of the decade, despite a sweeping overhaul of the system unveiled in the government's long-awaited schools white paper. Ministers have confirmed that education, health and care plans (EHCPs), the legally binding documents that guarantee tailored support, will gradually be scaled back for many pupils as a new system of specialist provision is introduced."

"EHCP numbers have doubled over the past ten years, pushing annual SEND spending to around £12bn. Government forecasts suggest that by 2029-30 more than 8 per cent of children could hold an EHCP before numbers begin to decline. After that point, the total is projected to fall by around 270,000, returning to roughly today's level of 640,000. Officials expect spending to stabilise at current levels by 2035, though they have cautioned that longer-term projections remain uncertain."

"Bridget Phillipson said the reforms are designed to reduce the adversarial nature of the current system, which often sees families locked in lengthy disputes with local authorities. While the government initially appeared to signal that EHCPs might be scrapped entirely, ministers have now clarified that families will still be able to request them, particularly for children with the most complex needs. However, mediation will replace tribunal proceedings in most cases where support levels are contested."

Spending on special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) is forecast to rise through much of the decade, driven by a doubling in EHCPs over ten years and annual costs around £12bn. Forecasts indicate EHCP prevalence could exceed 8% of children by 2029-30, then fall by roughly 270,000 to about 640,000 as a new specialist provision model is phased in. Officials expect spending to stabilise by 2035, but long-term projections carry uncertainty. Reforms will scale back many EHCPs, retain requests for complex cases, replace tribunals with mediation, require school inclusion strategies, and introduce individual digital support passports.

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