Despite Tesla's autonomous ride-hailing service launching in Austin, the expectations for its success have dwindled significantly. With $7.2 million wagered on Polymarket betting markets, the probabilities of the venture being classified as a success have plunged to just 2%. Although CEO Elon Musk initially set ambitious goals, the limited availability of the service to a select group of influencers contributes to the lack of confidence in broader market adoption. The critical factor for success depends on opening up the service to all Austin residents, which appears unlikely in the short term.
Tesla's autonomous ride hailing service went live just over a week ago with nearly a dozen robotaxis shuttling passengers in downtown Austin.
Anyone that wagered money Tesla would in fact go to market stands to lose their wager. At present, the probability has sunk to just a 2% success rate.
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