E-commerce sites see low sales from ChatGPT traffic, new study finds

"Results contradict widespread expectations of LLM superiority,"

"Time-trend analyses suggest gradual convergence with traditional channels, but projections indicate LLM will not achieve parity with organic search within the next year. These findings challenge narratives of LLMs as immediate 'Google killers,' while suggesting potential for long-term channel evolution."

"There's so much noise about AI agents impacting commerce and so little data,"

"This study is one of the first to quantify how much traffic you could potentially get from ChatGPT and how much of that actually converts."

Twelve months of first-party data from 973 e-commerce sites generating a combined $20 billion in annual revenue were analyzed. More than 50,000 transactions from ChatGPT referrals were compared with 164 million transactions from traditional channels. Referral traffic from ChatGPT underperformed all channels except paid social in conversion rate and revenue per session. Conversion rate and revenue per session for ChatGPT referrals improved steadily over the study period, but projections indicate LLM referrals will not reach parity with organic search within the next year. Similarweb estimates ChatGPT referral conversion at 11.4% versus 5.3% for organic search. OpenAI's Instant Checkout feature could help improve conversions as users turn to AI agents for shopping.

Read at Digiday