The Surprising Place Analysts Look to for Election Forecasting
Briefly

Washington state's primary elections are a strong predictor of general election outcomes, as they tend to mirror national electoral trends, particularly in presidential years.
The state's top-two primary system motivates candidates to campaign vigorously, engaging voters more effectively than other electoral structures, which often leads to higher participation rates.
With mail-in voting almost exclusively used and a voting period of nearly three weeks, Washington reduces barriers to participation, allowing a broader spectrum of voters to engage.
The timing of Washington's primaries, often in late summer or early fall, results in a stable political climate, as there is less time for public sentiment to shift ahead of the general election.
Read at www.nytimes.com
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