In 2008, shortly after Labor Day, John McCain actually held close to a three-point lead in national polls, but by Election Day, things had swung heavily toward Barack Obama.
In both 2012 and 2016 you can see the average shift by a few points during the final two months. In 2012, it goes from a substantial lead for the Democratic candidate, Mr. Obama, to a near tie with his opponent, Mitt Romney.
This year? Since Labor Day, the polls have moved from a high-water mark for Kamala Harris of +2.2 to a recent slim lead of just +0.9.
Why might this be the case? As I suggested two weeks ago, Trump's very well-defined brand image anchors the election, leaving a very narrow bandwidth for polling fluctuations.
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