The model consists of three parts: team strength metrics, match outcome prediction with probabilities, and simulating the entire European Championship to estimate the likelihood of each event.
France is the most probable winner of the European Championship according to the model, but the chance of them winning is comparable to a goalkeeper saving a penalty.
The European Championship is hard to predict due to the tournament's luck factor, fewer big games for national teams, and the general unpredictability of football.
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