"The study found that only 3.14% of Polymarket accounts qualified as skilled winners, who consistently earned profits that held up out of sample, trading across an average of 79 markets each."
"The findings challenge the assumption that prediction market accuracy stems from collective intelligence, as 96% of accounts either broke even by luck or lost money."
"Skilled traders' order flow was shown to predict both next-period price changes and final market outcomes at statistically significant levels, highlighting their critical role in price discovery."
A study analyzed 98,906 events on Polymarket, revealing that only 3.14% of accounts are skilled traders, generating most price discovery. Skilled traders maintained their classification 44% of the time out-of-sample, compared to 10% for skilled mutual funds. The research challenges the notion that prediction markets rely on collective intelligence, showing that 96% of accounts either broke even by chance or lost money. Skilled traders' order flow significantly predicted price changes and final outcomes, indicating their influence on market dynamics.
Read at news.bitcoin.com
Unable to calculate read time
Collection
[
|
...
]