Will January Bring Back BTC?

"After this morning's CPI report coming in lower than expected, markets showed a brief glimmer of hope, but this was quickly snuffed out. BTC is following the exact same pattern as yesterday, testing a local high and quickly being sold off at $89.2k. As the year winds down, the order books become thinner and thinner, so the violent moves we see aren't needing nearly as much volume to move prices."

"The end of the year option expiry on Deribit, 26DEC25, is seeing increased volume towards puts, with volatility continuing to get more expensive than calls. Open interest at the money and below in puts are outweighing calls, as traders have hedged themselves for a bearish outcome. Strikes from $75k to $65k are north of 10,000 contracts in open interest. End of year BTC Futures contracts are trading in backwardation, meaning futures prices are below current spot market."

"January 2026 contracts are trading in slight contango at the moment, while end of Q1 2026 contracts are about 2% above spot. On Hyperliquid, BTC perpetual futures are around 9% annualized in funding at this time of writing. Not much positivity is being priced in for the start of 2026, so far. January can be a mixed bag for BTC, but has generally had positive returns over the history of the asset. January has returned 11% for BTC, and has a win rate of 67%."

After a lower-than-expected CPI print, markets briefly rallied before quickly reversing, with BTC mirroring the pattern and facing rejection near $89.2k. Diminishing year-end liquidity has thinned order books, allowing large price swings on lower volume. Deribit option flow shows increased put volume and higher implied volatility for puts; open interest is concentrated at $75k–$65k strikes above 10,000 contracts. End-of-year futures trade in backwardation while January 2026 contracts sit in slight contango and Q1 contracts trade about 2% above spot. BTC perpetual funding on Hyperliquid is roughly 9% annualized, signaling limited optimism for early 2026.

Read at 24/7 Wall St.