"In a new interview with Cointelegraph, Check revisits a question he was asked earlier this year: Are we in a bull market or a bear market? While Bitcoin ( BTC) is trading near similar price levels, Check says that leverage, investor cost base, and sell-side behavior are now very different, and all those shifts matter. In fact, a majority of the capital currently invested in Bitcoin was acquired at higher prices, leaving many holders underwater and shaping a cautious sentiment."
"One of the most persistent myths this cycle, Check argues, is the idea that long-term holders simply don't sell. Onchain data shows that coins of all ages, from months to many years old, have been returning to the market at an unusually fast pace. This supply, he says, has played a significant role in recent price action, even if the narrative only caught up much later."
"At the same time, the analyst pushes back against claims that exchange-traded funds (ETFs), Michael Saylor or corporate treasuries have "captured" Bitcoin. While those entities are important, they represent only a portion of total market activity. The bigger takeaway, he suggests, is how large and liquid Bitcoin has become, capable of absorbing massive flows without the kind of volatility seen in earlier cycles."
Surface-level Bitcoin prices remain similar while underlying market conditions have shifted significantly: leverage, investor cost bases, and sell-side behavior differ materially. Most capital invested in Bitcoin was purchased at higher prices, leaving many holders underwater and fostering cautious sentiment. On-chain data reveals coins across short and long-age cohorts are returning to the market at an unusually fast pace, adding supply that affected recent price action. ETFs and corporate treasuries influence flows but constitute only part of market activity. Bitcoin’s increased size and liquidity allow it to absorb large flows with less volatility. Outlook considerations include sovereign adoption, portfolio construction, and long-term risks.
Read at Cointelegraph
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