"Since 2020, bitcoin's average 30‑day return during periods of negative funding has been 11.5%, compared with 4.5% across all periods, with a 77% hit rate for positive performance."
"The 30‑day moving average hash rate has fallen to the 16th percentile over 30 days and 9th percentile over 90 days, while difficulty has slid to the 5th and 6th percentiles."
"Across seven completed historical drawdowns, bitcoin was higher 90 days later in six cases, with a median gain of 37.7% and a 63.1% median gain over 180 days."
"Put premiums relative to spot volume are more than six times their April 2024 level, while active supply over the last 180 days slipped to 28.4%, signaling greater holder dormancy."
Bitcoin's onchain and derivatives data suggest a positive outlook, with negative funding rates and a declining hash rate. Realized volatility decreased from 56% to 41% amid easing US-Iran tensions. The 7-day average funding rate fell to -1.8%, the lowest since 2023. Historically, negative funding has led to an average 30-day return of 11.5%. The hash rate has dropped significantly, with recent declines indicating potential future gains. Derivatives data show increased put premiums and reduced active supply, reflecting cautious market sentiment.
Read at Bitcoin Magazine
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